Second Hand Housing Reference Price Released 15 Days: Guangzhou Property Market Temperature Plummeted

The traditional peak season of real estate industry "gold nine silver ten" is difficult to appear in Guangzhou this year. Under the layers of policy, Guangzhou property market transactions have gradually become cold.

On the evening of August 31, 2021, Guangzhou Municipal Bureau of housing and urban rural development issued the notice on establishing a mechanism for issuing reference prices of second-hand housing transactions, which officially implemented the release mechanism of reference prices for second-hand housing transactions. The notice involved 96 hot residential communities in Tianhe District, Yuexiu District, Haizhu District, Panyu District and Huangpu District.

Before that, Guangzhou has successively introduced a series of real estate regulatory measures, including tightening the amount of housing loans, adjusting the talent purchase policy and so on. After the introduction of the second-hand housing reference price mechanism, Guangzhou's overheated second-hand housing market has also rapidly cooled.

From this point of view, the direction of the official regulation of the real estate market has not changed, and the downward trend of the property market in Guangzhou has been difficult to reverse. Huang Tao, general manager of Guangzhou Zhongyuan project department, said in an interview with 21st century economic reporter that this was the normal operation of "overheated" market before, and it was also the demand to prevent financial risks.

Under the heavy blow, the Guangzhou real estate market has entered the downward channel, the unilateral upward trend has gone.

Add weight again

In the first half of the year, Guangzhou's frequent regulation and control actions show that Guangzhou's house prices have been unstable, and the official measures have not been reduced. Before the "golden nine silver ten" opening, Guangzhou real estate market also ushered in the "big killer".

On the evening of August 31, 2021, Guangzhou Municipal Bureau of housing and urban rural development issued the notice on establishing a mechanism for issuing reference prices of second-hand housing transactions (hereinafter referred to as the notice).

According to the notice, the Guangzhou Housing Policy Research Center will form a reference price for second-hand housing transactions on the basis of the online transaction price of second-hand housing in the past year, and comprehensively consider the evaluation price and the transaction price of the surrounding first-hand real estate, and require the real estate brokerage agencies and the real estate network information release platform to carry out self-examination on the listed houses, It is not allowed to release the second-hand housing source with unreasonably high prices.

After the introduction of the reference price of second-hand housing, the second-hand housing market, which once went out of the unilateral market, began to callback. According to the transaction data of the first week of September monitored by the Central Plains research and Development Department of Guangzhou, 486 second-hand residential transactions were completed in that week, down 7.4% month on month.

"Affected by the guidance price regulation and control, the second-hand property market in Guangzhou has further" turned cold ", and some buyers believe that the future market price will enter the downward channel for a short time. Therefore, some customers are worried that entering the market will lead to" high standing guard ", and choose to wait and see the future market before deciding whether to enter the market." the Central Plains research and Development Department of Guangzhou pointed out.

There are many owners who hold this mentality. A potential home buyer in Guangzhou, who plans to change houses in the near future, told the 21st century economic report that the property market in Guangzhou had risen too much before, but now the price will come down after the market cools down. "Now the whole market environment is still in a wait-and-see state, I am not in a hurry. If there is a suitable price and house, I will consider replacement. Referring to the situation in Shenzhen, many second-hand listing prices and transaction prices are up and down in the reference price. Guangzhou's supply is large, and there are a wide range of choices. I feel that the price should come down a little bit."

Xiao Wenxiao, chief market analyst of Guangzhou kerrui, also analyzed in an interview with the 21st century economic report, "The purpose of regulation and control is to better achieve the" three stabilities ". The previous two rounds of centralized land supply rules were changed to stabilize land prices. Strengthening the management of pre-sale prices of new houses is to stabilize the prices of new houses. This release of the reference price of second-hand housing transactions is to manage the expectation of second-hand prices. This round of regulation and control can be said to be a fight to the flesh."

With regard to the future policy trend of Guangzhou, Xiao Wenxiao pointed out that only when the financial investment attribute of housing is greatly weakened and the housing property is returned to the standard, regulation and control may no longer become the focus of the whole society.

Cold trend in the future

Before the release of the second-hand housing reference mechanism, Guangzhou's property market transactions have fallen.

According to Kerui data, in August 2021, there were 6711 online signings for new houses in Guangzhou, down 12% on a month on month basis. The number of "succeeding" 7057 in June this year became a new low in 2021; At the same time, the turnover of Guangzhou's first-hand residential buildings in August was 6749, down 9.3% month on month and 30.9% year-on-year. This is the fifth consecutive drop after the adjustment and control of Guangzhou in April.

In addition, the situation of second-hand housing is not optimistic. According to the statistics of Kerui Research Center, the turnover of second-hand housing in Guangzhou has been maintained at the level of more than 8000 units for three consecutive months, while the turnover of more than 10000 units has been maintained in the past more than a year, with the peak even reaching 14000-15000 units.

In such a market background, the atmosphere of speculation has been difficult to have a voice. What can be compared is the market situation of Shenzhen after the introduction of the reference price of second-hand housing.

After Shenzhen became the first city in the country to release the second-hand housing guidance price in February this year, the second-hand housing turnover has fallen sharply. In the past August, only 2043 second-hand houses were sold in Shenzhen, down 81.96% year-on-year. Data released by the National Bureau of statistics also showed that the average price of second-hand housing in Shenzhen fell by 0.4% month on month in August this year, falling for four consecutive months.

Therefore, although there are only 96 districts listed in the second-hand trading reference mechanism in Guangzhou this time, more importantly, this policy has released a signal to the market that the trend of strict regulation will not be changed.

In view of the future trend of Guangzhou real estate trading market, Xiao Wenxiao said that after the announcement of the transaction reference price, all parties in the market are still in the process of digesting the policy. It is not clear whether the commercial banks that are most concerned about will take the reference price as the guiding price for housing loan evaluation, and the market is generally on the wait and see. "In fact, before the release of the second-hand trading guidance mechanism, the turnover of new and second-hand housing in Guangzhou has shown an obvious downward trend, and the release of reference price has accelerated the process of market adjustment."

A local developer in Guangzhou also analyzed the 21st century economic reporter that Guangzhou is a market with little room for speculation, and the second-hand house is basically a barometer. Once the second-hand cooling down, it will naturally affect the psychology of first-hand buyers, and now Huangpu, Nansha and other peripheral areas have canceled the talent purchase policy, the supply of Guangzhou is much larger than Shenzhen, and it is impossible to be unaffected. "Some of our real estate, the final price is lower than the previous expected price, although there are also regulatory relations, but it is also the result of active selection. Customers according to the second-hand reference price to measure, the first-hand house will also be stabilized."

Huang Tao also pointed out that after the implementation of the second-hand trading reference price mechanism, the second-hand price in Guangzhou will certainly fall. "After the transaction volume drops sharply, there will be price falls. The future market trend is that there will be price differentiation. The trend will be that the low-end will be guaranteed, the middle end will have supply, and the high-end will have a market."