Chemical Fiber Analysis: Market Operation Analysis Of China'S Chemical Fiber Industry

In 2021, the global economy will gradually recover, and China's economy will also achieve sustained recovery and development, and its economic growth rate will rank at the forefront of the world. China's domestic and foreign demand for textiles and clothing is picking up, and the advantages of a complete industrial system have been brought into full play. In this year, the development of China's chemical fiber industry was accompanied by "double cycle", consumption upgrading, energy consumption "double control", and industrial safety. The operation of the industry showed gratifying characteristics: thanks to the in-depth promotion of structural reform on the supply side, the supply and demand pattern of the industry was improved; With the development of refining and chemical integration, the matching of industrial chain is more perfect and the profit distribution of industrial chain is more balanced; The competitiveness and anti risk ability of the integrated leading enterprises have been significantly enhanced; Product development of the industry has been continuously strengthened, and the differentiation and high quality of products have been able to meet the needs of domestic and international markets

In 2021, China's chemical fiber industry has entered the recovery stage of the post epidemic era, showing the overall situation of rising prices, increasing profits and stable inventory, realizing a good start of the "14th five year plan". However, it is worth noting that with the gradual weakening of the low base effect in 2020, the growth momentum of the industry will gradually slow down, and the growth rate of the main economic operation indicators will show an obvious trend of "high before and low after".

I. operation of chemical fiber industry in 2021

(1) production

In 2021, the output of chemical fiber will be 65.24 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 8.29% (Table 1). Among them, the output of viscose filament and acrylic fiber decreased by 2.42% and 11.87% respectively year-on-year, and the output of other main products was positive growth, especially polyester filament increased by 10.77% and spandex increased by 10.08% year-on-year.

Table 1 completion of China's chemical fiber output in 2021

Source: China Chemical Fiber Industry Association

(2) import and export

In 2021, the international trade of chemical fiber industry will basically return to normal, and the import and export volume of chemical fiber products will increase. The import volume of chemical fiber was 834500 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 9.92%, but it still decreased by 9.10% compared with that in 2019. Except for polyester staple fiber, the import volume of other major products increased year on year (Table 2). The export volume of chemical fiber was 5.191 million tons, an increase of 11.55% year-on-year, which has returned to the level of 2019 before the epidemic. Among them, the export volume of viscose staple fiber and acrylic fiber decreased by 13.16% and 26.98% respectively year-on-year, and the export volume of other major products all achieved positive growth.

Table 2 import and export of main chemical fiber products in 2021

Source: according to the data of China Customs

(3) market situation

In 2021, under the logic of cost support and good demand, the overall price center of chemical fiber market will return to the level before the epidemic (Figure 1 ~ Figure 5). In terms of polyester, although the market price showed a fluctuating upward trend, the increase was less than that of raw materials. At the end of December, compared with the beginning of the year, raw material PTA increased by 34%, polyester filament (POY) and polyester staple fiber increased by 21% and 17% respectively; In terms of nylon, the raw material CPL increased by 22% and nylon (POY) by 18% at the end of December compared with the beginning of the year; In terms of viscose staple fiber, the market price reached its peak in early March, and then dropped significantly, reaching about 11800 yuan / ton in late September, basically falling back to the level at the beginning of the year. Although it rose slightly in the fourth quarter, it fell back quickly, and remained at the level of 12000 yuan / ton at the end of December; In terms of spandex, the market price increased most obviously. 40d products increased rapidly from 39000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 65000 yuan / ton in early March, and then rose to 80000 yuan / ton in early August. Although there was a slight decrease after that, the overall price still remained at about 75000 yuan / ton.

There are two main reasons for the increase of spandex. From the cost point of view, PTMEG is the main raw material of spandex, accounting for about 80% of spandex raw material consumption. Another application field of its raw material BDO, PBAT (a kind of degradable material) has a great increase in demand under the favorable policy of "plastic restriction order", which leads to the price of BDO skyrocketing, thus driving up the prices of PTMEG and spandex. From the demand side, with the technical progress and product development of spandex industry, spandex is not only a kind of elastic material, but also can change the fabric style and increase the application scenarios and consumption. Affected by the epidemic situation, the demand for home clothes, sportswear, elastic fabrics and medical spandex has increased, and the proportion of spandex content in some fabrics has increased. Spandex has become a major raw material from "monosodium glutamate" in textile products. For example, the amount of spandex added in some yoga sportswear fabrics increased from 10% to 20%, some increased to 15% to 25%, and even some underwear fabrics contained more than 50% spandex, surpassing nylon as the main material; During the epidemic period, the demand for spandex for masks and protective clothing also contributed a lot.

Figure 1 price trend of polyester and its raw materials from 2020 to 2021

Source: MDF

Figure 2 price trend of nylon and its raw materials from 2020 to 2021

Source: MDF

Figure 3 price trend of acrylic fiber and its raw materials from 2020 to 2021

Source: MDF

Figure 4 price trend of spandex and its raw materials from 2020 to 2021

Source: MDF

Figure 5 price trend of viscose staple fiber and its raw materials from 2020 to 2021

Source: MDF

(4) operation quality and efficiency

In 2021, the economic benefits of chemical fiber industry will increase significantly year on year. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, for the first time, the operating income of the chemical fiber industry has entered the level of trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 27.83%; The total profit was 62.89 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 149.19%. The chemical fiber industry contributed nearly 25% of the profits of the whole textile industry; The loss of the industry was 17.3%, 11.42% lower than that in 2020, and the loss of loss making enterprises decreased by 8.84% year on year (Table 3).

The total profit growth rate of chemical fiber industry ranked first in the textile industry chain, with an average growth rate of 45.5% in two years, significantly higher than that before the epidemic. In terms of industry, polyester and spandex industry contributed 40% and 22% of the total profits of chemical fiber respectively. In addition, after more than ten years of accumulation, the technical level of carbon fiber industry has been improved. In 2021, the production and sales volume of domestic carbon fiber will exceed 10000 tons, and the whole industry will realize profits.

Table 3 economic benefits of chemical fiber and related industries in 2021

Source: National Bureau of Statistics

In 2021, the operation of chemical fiber industry will be gradually restored, and the operation quality index will be significantly improved compared with that in 2020 (Table 4). The profitability has been greatly improved. The profit margin of operating revenue was 6.13%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.83 percentage points, which is the second highest point since the economic crisis in 2008 (Figure 6); The growth rate of business income increased by 38.24 percentage points year on year; Compared with the same period in 2020, the operating capacity has improved. Except for the turnover rate of finished products, the turnover rate of accounts receivable, the turnover rate of current assets and the turnover rate of total assets have increased year on year; The proportion of the three fees decreased year on year, of which the management expenses decreased by 0.31 percentage points.

Table 4 operation quality of chemical fiber industry in 2021

Source: according to the data of National Bureau of statistics

Figure 6 change of profit margin of chemical fiber industry in 2008-2021

Source: according to the data of National Bureau of statistics

(5) investment in fixed assets

The improvement of enterprise efficiency has led to the gradual recovery of investment confidence. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the fixed assets investment of chemical fiber industry will increase by 31.8% in 2021 (Figure 7). Industrial enterprises actively carried out investment activities around the upgrading of technical equipment, extension of industrial chain and regional layout adjustment. The investment in fixed assets increased by an average of 3.1% in two years, and the investment scale has exceeded the level before the epidemic.

Figure 7 growth rate of fixed assets investment in chemical fiber industry from 2008 to 2021

Source: National Bureau of statistics

2. Operation prospect of chemical fiber industry in 2022

In 2022, the global economic growth is expected to slow down, the international political and economic pattern will accelerate the evolution, the growth of foreign demand may slow down, the recovery of domestic consumption will still face many difficulties, and the downward pressure on the economy will increase. However, the fundamentals of China's strong economic resilience and long-term improvement will not change.

In the first quarter, the chemical fiber industry has encountered many difficulties. Affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the local logistics of the chemical fiber industry cluster is blocked, the downstream demand is low, and the international oil price continues to rise, the chemical fiber cost remains high, and it is difficult to smoothly transmit to the downstream. The operating rate of the chemical fiber industry has decreased, and the economic benefits have been greatly reduced. Looking forward to the whole year, the operation pressure and risk of chemical fiber industry will increase. From the supply side, with the improvement of industrial integration, in order to digest the growth of refining capacity, downstream supporting projects continue to expand production significantly, so raw materials and chemical fiber are still in the capacity expansion period; From the perspective of the terminal market, China's textile and clothing market is expected to decrease, domestic sales may maintain a low-speed and stable growth, and the growth rate of foreign demand will gradually decline under the influence of "weak demand, high base, and order outflow". Therefore, the supply and demand pattern of the chemical fiber industry is expected to weaken in 2022, and the "double control" of energy consumption may exist for a long time, and the overall operating rate of the industry is expected to maintain or slightly lower. The wide range of crude oil shocks and uncertainty will increase the chemical fiber market risk. In addition, the high base in 2021 has a restraining effect on the growth rate of various indicators of the chemical fiber industry in 2022.

2022 is an important year for the implementation of the 14th five year plan. With the adjustment of policy and the change of economic structure, the contribution of scientific and technological innovation to the economy will gradually increase, and the "specialty, specialty and innovation" will also develop rapidly. Chemical fiber enterprises should seize this opportunity, continue to strengthen independent innovation and enhance the core competitiveness of enterprises. At the same time, chemical fiber enterprises should adhere to the road of green and sustainable development, vigorously promote the popularization and application of energy-saving and carbon reduction technologies, actively promote the transformation of clean production, extensively carry out the construction of green factories, green products and green supply chain, strengthen the comprehensive utilization of waste resources, and accelerate the mutual promotion and deep integration of low-carbon transformation and industrial development.

(source: China Chemical Fiber Industry Association)